rugby: 2011

Thursday, October 20, 2011

World Cup Final Preview: All Blacks vs France


All the talk surrounding this game is about France the ABs' bogey team. Opinion is divided over whether New Zealand will win with ease or if France will turn the tables yet again. Yet it is this very history that will make sure of an All Black victory on Sunday. There is no chance of underestimating the French. The All Blacks will turn up as if they are playing the world #1. In '99 the French played a phenomenal game scoring 4 tries to put the game out of reach of a shell-shocked ABs. Phenomenal it was, but 3 of the 4 tries came from kicks, some from the most extraordinary bounces. The All Blacks are prepared for this. In 2003 a not ready, thrown in the deep end referee refused to officiate offsides, meaning despite dominating the game, not being given one penalty in the 2nd 40, one penalty which would have changed the result. Dominating the 2nd half to such an extent the French captain, Dusautoir, made more tackles than the entire New Zealand pack. An offside game that prevented New Zealand from playing their wanted expansive game. New Zealand are prepared for this. The AB pack, led by Jerome Kaino, have taken it on themselves to step up 3 weeks in a row over the knock out stages. They have to set the Black juggernaut in motion. Arguably 2011 has seen the most destructive pick & go ever in rugby. New Zealand have been true professors this cup at knowing when to send the ball wide. And not before the hard yards are done. Of course, it helps having such talent out wide.

Discussion about whether this is the worst team ever to make a Rugby World Cup final....quite possibly. It's a toss up between them & both the 2007 finalists. There's discussion about whether this All Black team is a better model than 2007. Personally I believe the 2006 All Black team was the greatest rugby team there has ever been. What the 2011 All Blacks are is the greatest prepared team to win a Rugby World Cup (perhaps coupled with the '95 team). The 2011 model has a mix of youth & experience. With guys like Israel Dagg & Sam Whitelock still babies on the international stage you'd hope their best is yet to come. The '95 team was prepared physically to run every single team off their feet. Ask any player....they went through hell to prepare for that cup. The 2011 team is prepared over the board...physically & mentally. The plan & mindsets were planted long ago.

Despite some of the talk coming from the French camp about being up for this game it's impossible to see. We all know how unpredictable they can be but it will require a colossal dropping of the guard from NZ. There have been comments about intelligent French play with a record low 9 penalties/game against them...I attribute that to not even competing. And if it was intelligence remember they still gave Wales plenty of 3point opportunities to win their semi. I argue that France's best game to date was their group game vs New Zealand. In that game they differed somewhat by not actually playing the first 20mintues yet showing some steel later on (though the final score was padded somewhat by a dodgy Yashvili try).

Basically, France have to show a lot more than the 20 odd minutes they have put on vs other opponents to date. And even then I can't see it.  I would say this All Blacks are even prepared for the proverbial kitchen sink. I heard comments regarding NZ only beating Aussie by 14.....but sit down and look at the game. They shut Australia out. No tries and one penalty goal in 80minutes of rugby vs the world #2? And France are going to bring a lot less to the table than Australia. They seem a team totally bereft of ideas and resort to a kicking game...and not even a good one. On top of that New Zealand have frustrated teams all season into kicking the ball away such is the solidity of their defensive line. I'd suggest they need Trinh-Duc to have a hope of getting kicks in behind the NZ back 3 and pressuring the All Black lineout. Playing Parra yet again at 10 only really leaves them to play a chipping game which New Zealand have had covered all season. But with the back 3 on song defensively (Corey Jane is a one man bomb disposal unit, added to the danger of their countering) maybe the chip game is France's only real hope....hope to find turf and hope for that crazy bounce yet again. A chance to get in behind a solid defensive line & show that French flair.

The French pack will man up....for 20 minutes...maybe even half an hour. Then they will do well to keep it respectable.The All Blacks will be brutal, & a lot will depend on how long the French stay interested. Tournament long they have shown no unity or cohesion, no common objective apart from trying to play the game. There has been no structure, followed by......kicking.

So, put that up against a great team. A great plan to take the referee out of the equation and and even greater team to execute that plan. And, a great team that can afford to moderate their game in order to follow through. The All Blacks have showed their cards in bits & parts all season. But what you saw last week is the real deal. Expect more of the same on Sunday.

Monday, October 17, 2011

BULLiED


Chokers? Chokers my arse. Told you so. Told you these were men on a mission. The Wallabies play the match of their tournament but didn't get a look in. They were bullied up front. It was relentless when the All Blacks had the ball in hand. They showed why their ruck is considered the best in the game. Over the advantage line over & over again. Mealamu was a pocket battleship breaking through up the middle. The 2nd & backrows were ever present to take the ball up, relieving the pressure on Cruden. In defense Kaino was massive, highlighted by his carry on Ioane near the AB line.Owen Franks must be #1 as the world's best defensive prop, making tackle after tackle in the defensive line. From 1 to 8...the All Black pack stood up. Pocock did what he could, even producing a couple of steals, but the Australian pack was bullied at the NZ breakdown. They defended their own ruck ball like men possessed. They matched up at lineout time & won the scrum battle. Australia was lucky the All Blacks error rate was so low that they only had 6 scrum put ins,...losing 2 of those.

The Australians contained Nonu well, but his ability to make the gainline was still there, as well as his tendency to take 2 or 3 defenders. A sick Weepu fronted up well despite a poor day at the office in the goalkicking department, leaving 14pts on the field. Cruden was forever under pressure by an advancing Wallabies but with the pack being ever present to take the hit ups, and Corey Jane coming in off his wing the Australian objective to rattle the young 1st 5 wasn't realised.. Cruden himself even ghosting through the defense on a couple of occasions (though fluffing a try by cutting back in with 3 supporters outside). NZ's kicking game was as close to flawless as you can get, down the line or angled corner kicks pushing the Australians back on defence, often the restart being NZ ball. The Wallaby tactic seemed to be the high ball to Corey Jane who had undoubtedly the best day you will have ever seen under the high ball taking these with apparent ease, kick after kick. Copy book stuff. Dagg at the back was a constant threat. It now seems a given that when he runs that ball back he will light up the stadium. Gaps appear where there were no gaps. Forget superstar in the making, this kid is a superstar already. If he wasn't running he was returning favour with some booming touch finders.

In my match preview I said the chokers' tag is what will inspire these guys. You saw from the word go this team has a mental resolve. They controlled the game. Defending they trusted their defensive plan & chose to fan out cutting down space for the young exciting Wallabies, while biding their time to grab a ruck turnover. They minimised the penalties against them. Aussie looked dangerous only from quick turnover ball but such was the All Blacks' intent at their own ruck they minimised these opportunities & the Wallabies were often forced into a kicking game that came back to haunt them. Dagg & Jane were a sideshow to the main event but Australia were a glutton for punishment, feeding them time & time again.

This was truly a 15 man performance (black mark on Sonny Bill making a cameo long enough to get carded and leaving the ABs to battle out the dying minutes with 14 causing a few jitters amongst the fans & coaches alike). Forget world cup history and judge this team for what they have brought to the table to date. Stamp that cup now.

Friday, October 14, 2011

PREVIEW: All Blacks vs Wallabies

Ma'a Nonu: expect the game of his life

Could only be a bigger match if this was the world cup final. As it is, world #1 vs world #2 in the semi final. Been here before. Twice they have met in rugby world cups, twice the Australians have pushed the All Blacks out in the semis to the prospect of waiting another 4 long years. The Wallabies have shown that, despite a sometimes dismal form that belies the number 2 or 3 ranked team in the world, they can turn up when it matters most; vs the Men in Black. That is where all the doubt lies heading into this colossal match. Yet again NZ find themselves in a world cup as the unquestioned favourites. Yet again the pressure is on. Yet again as the timer counts down the world is questioning the All Blacks' mental resolve.

The facts. Australia have won 2 of the last 3. The deeper facts. Both those victories were a little bit hollow. The Tri Nations opponents already whitewashed, the Bledisloe in the bag for another year, then a stopover in Asia at the beginning of their Northern Hemisphere tour, followed by the last home game of the Tri Nations, a rested team vs a rotating, divided squad. Some returning from the Republic, some flying over from NZ after some time off with their family. And obviously with bigger things on their mind. The Wallabies taking home the Tri Nations cup has aided New Zealand, while giving Australia hope. False hope?

Both teams at their best will mean there's only 1 result. Australia haven't played well enough yet at this cup to suggest a victory on Sunday. It's clear they will have to turn out something much better than what we have seen to date to have a show. Meanwhile the Black Machine is rocking along nicely. A below par performance in the opener vs Tonga but nothing but steadiness since. And, something novel for All Black teams of this era, showing a real ability to keep structure.

The black pack know this is their day. Instead of the pressure felt through previous campaigns and the constant remarks about the All Blacks' mental state when the heat comes on,...these boys are relishing the opportunity. They aren't going into this match to simply dominate upfront...they have one simple resolve....to smash the Wallaby pack. The New Zealand scrum is arguably the best in the world. Woodcock is generally widely regarded as the world's best loosehead. After injury problems he has come on nicely and is now making his presence felt. As young as Owen Franks is, the uncovering of him (& his brother) is seen as a real coup for New Zealand rugby. Mealamu the most dynamic rake around? Put big bad Brad up behind our tighthead and the Wallaby scrum has less hope than the proverbial snowball. Whitelock is fast developing into the world's most exciting lock (taking over from pinerider, Ali Williams). Jerome Kaino is a menace, just ask any international team that has faced him. Commands the utmost respect, carry the ball near him at your own peril. Read is short of a gallop but is nothing but class, considered in NZ as the world's premier eightman. McCaw at 7...he speaks for himself. The only place Australia can match up is openside flank, Pocock vs McCaw. But with a dominated pack Pocock is going to be fighting a losing battle.

Word is, and didn't we know it, the Wallabies will target Cruden. I imagine that won't phase NZ or Cruden one bit. The injury to Slade is a blessing in disguise. This kid has had a phenomenal domestic championship, basically dominating rugby headlines more than any other player, or having said that, more than any team. He was literally on fire. And has personally been through a lot tougher times than anything Australia could throw at him. Besides, he is going to get an armchair ride behind a pack that is stepping up, in part, for him. Add to the mix 4 other Hurricanes in the backline and he will be right at home. Weepu is on top of his game, thriving on the extra responsibility now Carter has gone. He even has the top goalkicking performance at the cup. Nonu, maybe courtesy of Sonny B, is in the form of his life. At centre the current era ABs' answer to 80s Mr Dependable Warwick Taylor in Conrad Smith, flanked by the wing with the golden touch (& back in form) Corey Jane & the always stepping up Richard Kahui. The dazzling counter attacking of Israel Dagg is the icing on the cake, and you have got 1 backline with a mix of power, pace & skills to match it with anything the Aussie wonderkids can throw at them. If Beale can't get through this it takes away their #1 attacking weapon. Cooper will be nullified because he can't play behind a backtracking pack.

But it all comes back to the same thing. The choke. Well...it isn't going to happen. It isn't going to happen for a number of reasons. The past couple of seasons the All Blacks have shown the ability to come back from seemingly unbeatable deficits with time running out on the clock. There is a real belief in themselves & the players around them. The mental resolve has grown and is still growing as you read this. They will not let anything or anyone get in their way this time round. That includes the referee. The game plan will show this. The all out attack will be leashed. The expansive game won't be. On defense it will be 2 hit ups and clear. On opposition scrums they will gauge the referee's feeling. They have the mettle on the Wallaby scrum but if the whistles aren't going their way against the head they will bide their time, slowly sapping the opposition's strength up front. They will bide their time at Australian rucks while in defence, trusting in their defensive systems & waiting for the moment to pounce. Gone are the gift 3 points to the opposition because a referee interpreted it differently. The irony is the choke tag takes away some of our favouritism. Every cloud has its silver lining.

The All Blacks will win this upfront and between halfback & 2nd 5. Weepu behind a rampaging pack (yes, they will rampage), a sniping Cruden (by the way, with one of the most dangerous offloads in the game) and a bustling Nonu...the outsides may do the finishing but around the traffic zones it will be relentless for the
Australian defence. While the Wallabies had a mammoth defensive effort last week facing 75% possession...it was mainly fielding kicks and forlorn attempts at counter attack. NZ will do a lot more with the ball than a stagnant Boks. The 1st 20mins of this game will be among the most bruising you have ever seen.

Australia will do well to stop it becoming 1 oneway street. ABs will attempt to win this inside the 1st half hour.

PREVIEW: Wales vs France

Mike Phillips key to a Welsh victory

Surprising the little faith in this Welsh team. Sure, in the world of rugby, France are seen as the bigger team but perhaps a little known fact is the Dragons actually have the edge at 44 victories to Les Bleus 43. Some are still expecting the French to fire. Many think they already have. I don't see 25mins in the opening period vs England as being enough to get you through a world cup semi. The French have the last 3 on the trot & the bigger game temperament...but there's something bout this Welsh team that gives the impression they have no demons and are up for any opponent. 

As with any game at this stage you expect the battle to start up front. France's Nicolas Mas is a reknown scrummager, but the Welsh tight 5 as a whole are up for this. The scrum battle is going to be shared. What the Scarlet pack will try to do is play their uptempo game combined with ferocity & relentless energy at the ruck. We saw it vs the Boks, we saw it vs the Irish, and we will see it on Saturday. At the lineout the Welsh will contest early, a couple of wins against the throw to get into the Frenchmen's heads? In the loose Dusautoir makes his usual tackle count but is off the pace with the carrying game, maybe a result of a French pack that hasn't been physical enough over the 80. Harinordoquy is the one player will match it up front but I get the feeling he's going to be a lone crusader.

Behind the pack Yashvili is under a cloud. If he doesn't take any knocks he'll be fine but it's not easy to hide at this level. Opposite Mike Phillips must be the biggest 9 in the international game & he will put the heat on, running quick ruck ball. The Welsh may have lost their young 1st5, Priestland, but with Hook & Jones they have 2 more pivots with very similar games, confident & more than happy to take the ball to the line. Outside is a nominee for player of the tournament, Jamie Roberts (alongside fellow 2nd 5 Ma'a Nonu). Roberts has been a freight train with ball in hand and there will be no let up for the French. With Parra starting at 10 for Le Bleus expect the 2nd channel to be tested time & again. Rougerie & Davies will be a good match up, a good chance for the young Welsh centre to test himself against one of the games best. Unfortunately for Rougerie, not a lot of front foot ball won't make it easy for him. North will be looking to do some damage using his size vs some of his smaller match ups and expect all the Welsh backs to make some good yardage.

Seriously I can't agree with anyone that backs the French here. Wales have shown they are up for anyone & with another repeat performance from their pack, taking the ball over the advantage line, Phillips carrying it on, Hook taking it to the line, Roberts basically looking to give anyone concussion that steps in his path...it's going to be a long day at the office for the French backs. The opening will be a real dingdong, probably even some flare-ups but I've seen nothing to suggest an 80minute performance from the French pack. With the quick front foot ball the Welsh backs are going to get I can't give France a look-in.

I know it's a world cup semi but...Wales by 15.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

the AFTERMATH





There's a saying "every dog has his day". Well this day was (or wasn't, depending your take on it) South Africa's. All we are hearing from the republic is how Bryce Lawrence cost them the game (and so it seems, also the cup). I have been repeating for weeks how Bryce Lawrence was not up to scratch and his policing of the ruck was incredibly weak. Now surely any top level international team & coaching group had spotted that? What did Pocock get away with? Whatever he could....and good on him. Isn't that his role? And was it any different to what Heinrich Brüssow gets away with every single time he pulls on the Springbok jersey? Lawrence was just plain weak. It was 80minutes of non stop errors. He didn't favour 1 team. He made 2 bad calls in the opening stanzas that wrestled the early initiative from the Wallabies and gave South Africa the ball well into enemy territory. The honest truth is South Africa should have known what Lawrence's weakness was, and played to it. They didn't.

What happened here was the Boks had no plan B. They never do. If another team get ahead and just return in kind to the South African kicking game they are bereft of ideas. Once they have to start playing catch up it's good night nurse. They had the game at 9-8 but despite all Matfield's lineout work and all his experience...a basic error from him gave Australia the shot they needed to take back the lead with the clock counting down. Scoring 3pts from putting the opposition under pressure in their own half? Hmmmm...seems the Saffers lost at their own game.

What happened here was the Boks' luck ran out. They had their fair share in cups gone by. And they had their fair share here. Now the shoe is on the other foot and they don't like it. Smit's comments are an insult to his legacy. "Bryce is not difficult to communicate with, he just doesn't seem to listen very well. The one positive is that I won't ever have to be reffed by him again."  For all the bad luck Richie McCaw has been through he can hold his head high. Not once has he criticized anybody despite the flak he has received from all sides. The same can't, now, be said for John Smit.

It doesn't stop there, with many journalists from the republic having their say. Apparently they would have us believe this is the "biggest sport injustice" since ever. Don't they remember '95? Probably not with their selective memory that I've come to know. Apparently the Boks were "hitting their straps". Really? Laughable. What I saw was yet again a South African team making very hard work of getting through pool play. Apparently they were the All Blacks' #1 threat. Apparently all Kiwis thought so, too. Funny. The common stream of thought was Australia have always been our nemesis and would be again. Apparently Dan Vickerman's illegal shoulder from the side of the ruck took Brüssow out of the game & cost them the match(so it wasn't Lawrence??). Apparently when Bakkies Botha did it last British Lions tour(wow, pulled that one out of the hat) he was cited (once in 100 times aren't bad odds). Vickerman wasn't cited. Ohhhh the SANZAR conspiracy theory all over again? You see, after they had dealt to the Wallabies it was also a foregone conclusion vs the All Blacks. Apparently NZ are back to playing high risk rugby, looking vulnerable, and playing right into South African hands. Apparently all Kiwis are relieved the Boks are gone. Yes, I wanted the Boks out. Not because they were a threat to the ABs. The Wallabies are the threat. I wanted to Boks out because they are a threat to rugby.

It was actually refereeing incompetence that got the Boks through to the 1/4 finals in the 1st place. Both Wales & Samoa deserved victories against the Boks. As I said...the shoes on the other foot. Like it or lump it.

Oh....apparently they are lumping it.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

All Blacks v Pumas

Damned if you do damned if you don't. Who wouldn't back NZ? 13 tests is hardly a telling statistic but the Pumas best results vs the All Blacks tend to come from results pre the professional era. In fact, for a team(ie, NZ) that seriously struggles to retain their homegrown talent it's incredible they have only improved their results in the last 20yrs.

Not much to say here. Who won't back the All Blacks? Even the Pumas' diehards will. If we weren't playing them they would be supporting us. The Argies are your traditional rugby boys, growing up with 2 dreams. Playing for their country & facing the Haka.

Their strength is reknown. The scrum. But is there any scrum that can beat the NZ scrum in today's game? (Remember Mr Dickinson isn't here). The All Blacks will relish this. The backs have the goods. Regardless of the injury toll they would be favourites vs anyone. This is the perfect opponent pre semifinal. The All Blacks pack needs to step up 3 games in a row. They can get away with a halfhearted performance here but who lapses could be out. The 1st choice 2nd row has to be big bad Brad and the dynamic Whitelock. Henry knows what Williams can bring to any party but what we want is consistency. Not bad for 2 years out of the game but a world cup final needs him at his best. Great to see Weepu chosen as lead #9 and Cruden thrown in. On his game Weepu is as good as it gets. Slade has to produce, and he has the goods, but Cruden is as classy and perhaps the most dangerous 1st 5 in today's game. Cruden can threaten Sonny Bill as the game's top offloader & deserves attention. He will get 20minutes.

The All Blacks, while respecting Argentina and treating the 1st hour as a hard as nails test match, will treat this as a training run while they set their semi & final's game plan in place. We've seen it all season. Forget the looseness seen vs the minnows. The All Blacks feel this is their time. Take the referee out of the game. In their own half choose to defend & believe in their structure rather than challenge opposition rucks & give away kickable penalties. Ball in hand, 2 hit ups then clear. On attack, cutting down the 50/50 passes (to a point...the real cement will come a week later) and relying on a strong ruck game. The counter attack will be evident but contained until Dagg is back on board.

Typical fair. New Zealand paying $1.02 at the TAB yet a NZ fan seen as arrogant for expecting an AB win. Who would you back even if you weren't a fan of the All Blacks?

All respect to the Pumas...it's a training run for what New Zealand see as their true final next week vs Australia or the Springboks.


Australia-South Africa



The big game from the Southern side of the quarters. A back to full strength and arguably as strongest as they have been in the Deans rebuilding era Wallabies vs a troubled, aging, yet still dangerous Springboks. What's it to be? An Australian pack matching it up front and giving their exciting young backs licence to thrill? Or a dominant rumbling Bok pack getting into pressuring positions onfield and coming away with 3 points?

The Aussie tight 5 and frontrow in particular is going to have to stand up. Australia is quite capable of having their scrum destroyed and still coming away with a victory but a semblance of parity here & you'd have to think it will be advance Australia fair. A lot of talk and even some Saffer tears regarding the loss of Bakkies Botha but in reality they are missing nothing. Danie Rossouw is just as physical & brings a lot more to the 2nd row than just intimidation. And he's having a great tournament. He'd be my 1st pick ahead of all the South African locks. Matfield isn't the lineout king he once was and Australia have shown themselves to be the match of anyone in this discipline. Expect the Wallaby lineout to attempt to turn the tables here.

An unshackled Rocky Elsom is quite capable of matching Burger with the ball in hand, a reborn Samo has had a much better season than Spies, and much has been said of Pocock v Brüssow. Pocock wins that hands down if Brüssow is forced to play within the rules. He's quite capable of turning over an impressive amount of ball but is often allowed to scavenge while on both knees or even enter sides of rucks astoundingly while returning from offside positions. The bad luck here for the Wallabies is the man with the whistle is perhaps the weakest ruck controller amongst all international referees, NZ's Bryce Lawrence.

Expect Genia to have an impact and while we all know Du Preez's ability he will be wanting a dominant performance upfront.The Boks will no doubt be trying to put some heat on Cooper, expect Burger to be thrust into the openside role on occasion to bear down on the #10 as they try to rattle this potential match winner/loser. The African midfield isn't the force it once was but Fourie is always onsong & De Villiers will be relishing finally getting his world cup opportunity. The Australian centres match up here, McCabe is still new but defensively sound. Outside, Habana isn't the threat of bygone seasons & with the pacey outside Australian backs he will be even more nullified. One try in well over a year, and even then vs a minnow, doesn't argue against that. Peterson does the job but wouldn't make either of the other trinations teams. By contrast O'Connor is a constant threat and NZ born Ioane may be a bit rusty after time out for a broken thumb but we can expect some bustling runs. At the back Lambie has been class but counterattacking from the back not really being a Springbok ploy he will be reduced to injecting himself into the line & defending Australian attacks out wide. Surely we will see Beale mixing it up with his wings this will be where Australia win it.

A lot will come down to referee interpretation at scrum time but the Australian pack will do a reasonable job and even hope for a few penalties their way. Steenkamp is known to drop his bind at times & this may all the Wallaby pack need for a confidence boost. If Lawrence can show some sort of understanding and vision at the ruck the Green & Gold will take this one by 15. If the Aussie scrum can't hold up & Brüssow gets a free licence it's going to be a very long night for the Wallabies.

Friday, October 7, 2011

England vs France

Both teams will be trying to get 1 over the other at scrum time...but neither pack is up to scratch

Is this the medicine both these teams need to finally start playing? A large spoonful of hard & pacey rugby to prove to fans & critics alike they do deserve to be here? The 2 traditional northern heavyweights who can count some lucky stars that Georgia didnt have an on song kicker or a favourable referee? That the Scots lacked that finishing touch? That the heartwinning Japanese for all their endeavour found themselves 0-7 down through no fault of their own from yet another refereeing blunder? A huge 7pts in the context of the game...

A toothless England with no penetration and a pack that is a shadow of its former self vs an out of sorts French unit that is struggling to give even their most passionate supporter hope for one of those glorious games?

There is hope that the said 950 year Anglo-French rivalry will finally awaken two slumbering giants. That the bitter pill from losing this international derby is too hard to swallow is what will finally stir these 2 normal powerhouses from the north into action. I do think we'll see a  lot more aggression from these 2 teams than we have to date. But will it continue & eventuate into a spectacle for all the right reasons? Personally....I can't see it....
First up...who is the home team? Obviously England will want their brand new black, Maori design emblazoned shirts. This will force the French into their white strip. Hardly the same psychological move as forcing the ABs into their alternate but still, 1st points to the Poms.

So, an English pack without Sheridan. For all the hype Matt Stevens hasn't produced & the French will target him. Make no mistake, both teams will see the scrum as a possible area of dominance and would have been working hard on this. An experienced Steve Thompson to start ahead of a more aggressive Hartley, the right ploy. A niggling French effort could prove costly if Hartley can't contain himself but guaranteed to make an entrance as the game opens up. Same could be said for Lawes starting on the bench behind Deacon as the English take 4 locks into the game in a 5/2 split on the bench. Flood at 2nd5 would normally be a risky move but with a solid defender at 10 in Wilkinson and the French marking up with no one of particular size except for Rougerie at centre we'll just have to wait and see. Obviously Johnson & co are hoping the ploy of a 2nd5 rather then an inside centre will finally get their backs looking dangerous. For all the talk young Tuilagi has been largely ineffectual and Ben Foden's spark disappeared long ago. In an all too common theme from the 6 nations the English backs showed yet again their startling ability to run across field. Cueto is solid but in many teams would be nothing more than a journeyman while Ashton has failed to reach the heights of last season.

Now this is the tough part. France. Les Bleus. The Blues. How appropriate. Must have been a very hard cup to date for the French fans to watch. Everyone knows they can pull the rabbit out of the hat. Problem is that hat seems just too empty. Still, it will take a brave man to bet against them. Forget the apparent disharmony in the squad. Much as some won't like to hear it the French can be very much like their neighbouring Italians. A lot of emotion & sentiment in the moment that often comes pouring out but it's such a part of their culture that it's easily forgotten. So despite the mysterical ramblings from a seemingly madman as a coach, come game day that will all be forgotten.

Upfront the French will be looking for a huge game from Servat. If Stevens proves to be the weak link then poor Dan Coles could be in for a demanding day if Servat directs his attention onto the English tighthead. THIS will be the decisive part of the game with both frontrows looking for a quick camaraderie with referee Steve Walsh to gain the early ascendancy. With the current French form it's just too difficult to say whether or which of the 2nd or backrows will dominate. We know what the English can do but if the French can rediscover that hardnosed attitude tinged with some niggly foul play it may just be enough to help them find that extra gear. Yachvili is going to have to be watched...not for reason of any current form but in this cup alone has shown a tendency to try things "un-rugby". Simulated dives & unsporting quick taps come to mind. Parra at 1st5 hasn't worked. Mind you neither has the whole French lineup. Outside the halves there's been nothing of note but when you are as big as Rougerie you will always be a threat.

England the last few years have seemed set on trying to expand their game but make no mistake, this is finals footy.  With Wilkinson & Flood in the mix there will definitely be no shyness towards the odd dropgoal but you still need to score tries to go all the way and they will be looking to get their dangerous outsides into space. One feels however that a standard sliding defence supported by good cover will negate English attempts to run the ball. I think we all know...if the French turn it on, then this game is theirs for the taking. I think everyone has a different idea of just how big this IF is. The niggle is a sure thing and with an at times powerhungry Steve Walsh there's going to be cards. Keeping those to a minimum & getting him on side at scrum time will be the essential ingredients to getting through this. Make no bones about it...there's going to be controversy.

This could be tight as they come. Being a Kiwi and having been burnt by the French before I could be forgiven for hedging my bets but I have seen nothing this cup, spare the opening 10mins vs the ABs, to suggest a French victory. Maybe the apparent support of the world will be that extra spur they need? If the scrum battle is split then I'm picking an English victory by 15 and 1st tryscorer an ever supporting Mark Cueto. If the French can get their frontrow rocking & get under their opponents' skin, that's all the French backs need to get their act on....then it will be Tous Bleu. Look for any French back to finish off a counter.

But then again....Steve Walsh is referee. The only given is some dodgy calls, and expect the irishman Clancy to have his say.

So...a spectacle for all the right reasons? Personally....I can't see it....(still....gonna be fun watching the Poms and Frogs niggle the shit out of each other)

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Ireland vs Wales


This is the game that packs most interest for me. The 2 in form teams of the northern hemisphere. Paddy vs Taffy. Number 5 vs number 6. 2 teams that through the last 40yrs have had nothing between them (only the initial Welsh glory days overshadow the Irish). I said it the moment the boys from the Emerald Isle beat the Wallabies that this is the best chance they (along with Wales) will get in 50yrs of world cup rugby to take home the Webb Ellis. All the Southern powers cast to one side of the draw, a misfiring France & still toothless England on theirs. Just as the All Blacks will play their final next week vs the winner of Australia-South Africa, Wales & Ireland play their semi now. If the Boks or Wallabies can get up to beat the ABs it leaves the final wide open.

I have long been a fan of the Scarlet Dragons. The way they have started to play again, while obviously enjoying themselves, is how rugby should be played. When I dont support the ABs I support the Taffs. For all of that the Irish arent too far behind. The bookies cant separate them & neither can I.

The Welsh playing under a new hero, a young everywhere man and a player come of age when his nation needed him. A just turned 23 Sam Warburton. Not a huge man by any standards but a huge heart. Inspiration when Wales needed inspiration. If the Welsh can get their go forward happening, and after seeing their display vs the Spring Boks one would have to think it's a given, expect to see one busy & tackle busting Toby Faletau added to the mix. One of the players of the tournament to date. There will be a lot of fire between these 2 in form packs but the Welsh will still to play to this frenetic pace which we have seen employed with success this cup. Gatland chooses Priestland in a show of confidence for the young playmaker, leaving a very experienced & now fit Stephen Jones out of the matchday 22 & only a bench spot for the classy James Hook. And why wouldn't you pick him? Wales are looking good as they were in their heady "sometimes" days under the Great Redeemer Henry. Outside Priestland you have a rampaging Jamie Roberts and not too far behind Davies. Welsh record try scorer Williams comes back into the mix for what could be his swansong and can we expect the game of his tournament? He has been a little quiet & would be nice to see him pull 1 Welsh sidestep after another on his way to beating 4 or 5 tacklers on the inside. A match winning giant of a boy in George North playing out of position on the right to accommodate Williams but we will still expect big things. Your true modern day rugby winger, +100kg and quick...and he has it all at 19. Interesting call to have Halfpenny at 15 ahead of James Hook but he is in great form and his workrate coupled with a defense that belies his stature ensures his place. His booming penalties won't hurt either.

Ireland may be hoping for a damp day to get their forward pack rumbling & to nullify the extreme pace that Wales will surely look to impose on the match. Obviously the Irish will try to get scrum dominance but I can't see Wales not having done their homework there. An evergreen lighter Paul O'Connell has had a great year & will be key for 2 reasons: As Ireland look to extend their statistics as the most dominant lineout at the cup(snaffling round 30% of oppn throws) and his ability to get his new model frame round the park to combat the Welsh expansive game. No one doubts the power of the back 3 but without a true fetcher I think the loose trios will just about cancel each other out unless 1 pack gains the upper hand. The big call here is Kidney opting for O'Gara at 1st5 leaving one to suspect the Irish have now moved truly into knockout rugby and will look to defend while adding to their tally in 3s. Regardless of the kicker if it continues to blow like recent days at the Wellington stadium many kicks are going to come down to luck in that swirling wind. O'Gara not known for his expansive game but his recent sub appearances have shown an ability to open up his outsides. Still, hard to see the Irish plan being to mix it with the Welsh backs though expect some pinpoint cross the field kicks where Tommy Bowe has an obvious size & height advantage over Shane Williams. Despite the experience of the Irish midfield they have shown a tendency this season to fall off (or not even get there) tackles. With the form of the brutal Welsh midfield this could be where Wales break the game open.

So what's it to be? Ireland gunning for a dominant performance upfront while picking off 3pt plays or a counter attacking frenetic Welsh game? Personally I cant see the Irish pack gaining much of an ascendancy and I do think the Welsh midfield will create havoc combined with their dangerous outsides. Joubert would be my favourite referee when it comes to capability but they have shown they are all prone to match deciding controversial decisions. With Barnes & Poite on the sidelines we can expect some flags.
I'll say the Dragons by 10, North to either finish off a counter attack or a midfield break to be first try scorer. Or a pacey fullback with vision and the opportunity to inject himself where he wants. Halfpenny.
Enjoy. I will.

World Cup 1/4s

Stay posted. Coming here. The short meltdown on each of the quarter finals.

Sat night 7pm Ireland-Wales
Sat night 9:30pm France-England
Sun night 7pm Australia-South Africa
Sun night 9:30pm New Zealand-Argentina

Saturday, October 1, 2011

ireland vs italy



Heard a lot of talk bout this game & many saying the Italian pack will dominate the Irish. Crap. Shite. Irish have some huge props and a light athletic Paul O'Connell is in the best form of his life. The Irish pack will hold their own in the scrum and dominate them in the loose.No one seems to notice how the Italian front row also become their Achille's later in the game. For this reason I'm not a large fan of a mouthy Castrogiovanni. Any team with brains(you'd think all at this level) would run any player with even slightly sharp skills at these guys. They have cost Italy games time & again. And the Irish backs have too much flair for the Italian three quarters. And their midfield has shown a shyness to halt hard running ball carriers. And for these reasons (sidled with weak reffing that has too often sided with an overrated Italian scrum) put your money on the Paddies. First try scorer? I'm a huge O'Connell fan, & Healy or O'Brien spring to mind if I was gonna back a forward but despite the ageing weakness of the Irish midfield I'm gonna back someone to break at 2nd5 and O'Driscoll to dot down.
 Irish eyes are smiling: Ireland captain Brian O'Driscoll is so proud of his try against Italy

BIG BIG HITS!!

I always approach these matches, a South Pacific nation vs a traditional heavyweight, with a mix of trepidation, hope and excitement.  Just which team is going to turn up. Will the island boys come away having made a lasting impression on the opposition & crowd alike? Or their moments of individual brilliance be overrun by an organised 15? Of the 3 island nations Western Samoa is the one you expect the big things, but in cup history they are the team that have dismally failed vs the Boks while their 2 neighbours have both given the republic a run for their money. One gets the feeling the island nations lift for Spring Bok clashes like no other. No need to ask why. And as a fan there's just something about watching the island boys smash the Saffers.
The omens were good enough...The Black Eyed Peas belting out "I got a feeling that tonight's gonna be a good night". But what is with this Maori horn? Is that for real part of Maori tradition? Or are we getting gimmicky? Forgive my ignorance here, someone please enlighten me. And that prompts me to ask why the French trumpeting? I do like it & I do get the urge to cry out OLÉ! while sitting in my living room...but why impose this as standard for games of rugby at a NZ World Cup yet disallow the great sound of the bagpipes? At times us Kiwis can be such wannabes (the Wellywood sign springs to mind...how embarrassing).
Another bug is what's with these pregame player stats? The Samoan 1st 5, Tusi Pisi, 197cm?? Reminds of 1 Glen Osborne filling his wallet with loose change then placing in his back pocket before the "weigh in" to make sure he broke the 80kg mark!

On to the game and our small South Pacific neighbour weren't to disappoint. With nearly All Black Paul Williams expertly defusing the Boks kicking game from fullback it gave the Samoans a foot in the door. With an intelligent kicking game mixed with power & flair, plus their renowned physical intimidating defence the Islanders had the right recipe to put the Boks under pressure. As the game went on the South Africans didn''t seem too keen to take the ball up one off the ruck. Add to that the delayed appearance of any green jerseys at any scuffle can't help but wonder if the boys from the republic are a little bit afraid when it comes to these clashes.

Before anyone asks no I'm not anti South African. I am anti Springbboks. I despise the way they play the game. Face it, if every nation played that way we wouldn't be turning any new fans onto our wonderful sport. Once a Saffer rebuttled that by saying "Why should we play entertaining rugby for other people? Let's just keep this game for the countries that do play it"? I'm surprised to hear most Kiwis are saying anyone but Aussie. I'm saying anyone but the Boks. Aussies will rib us but it's always a bit of give & take between us. Aussies know how to take it as well as give it. Ever since that bigot Luyt remarked "There were no true world champions in the 1987 and 1991 World Cups because South Africa were not there" (prompting the All Blacks, French & English to leave the post final dinner) we get to listen to certain Saffers
spout how only their 2 cups are legit. I beg to differ. I'd say the 2 South African cups hold less water than any. I swear 80% of Spring Bok fans know no other phrase than "we have 2 world cups". I do hate ignorance. And I do hate some of the tricks got up to in the past(from middle of the night car alarms to street protests at ungodly hours strangely stopping outside hotel windows). To my personal Saffer friends nothing is aimed at you, I know I can be very general at times but I do enjoy a good night out at the pisser with you all(even if you do support arguably the dirtiest international sportsteam on the planet). I don't like Bakkies Botha...but outside the Rainbow Republic...who does? I'm not a Matfield fan...he's a 1 trick pony & his days of being lineout kingpin have passed. One way to stop any rare Bok ball in hand attack is pass the ball to him. I think Brussow gets away with murder at the rucks (without mentioning his offside play), never lament McCaw & praise Brussow. Bismarck Du Plessis doesn't come across as the brightest lamp in the street. Surprised teams don't target him as a weakness, he needs to be needled, exploit the chink in his armour. A great physical impact on the game but no self control in heated situations. A remnant of frontrowers from a bygone era. But I like Fran Steyn, even though when he was younger he was like temperamental little bitch of a menstrual schoolgirl(at 95kg). You can't help but admire anyone who can boot 60m field goals. Danie Roussow is huge, can't understand why he isn't 1st choice ahead of either of the other 2 locking stalwarts. Love watching little Francois Hougaard. What isn't to like about a gutsy little dynamo having an impact in top flight rugby games? Top of my list is one Schalk Burger. Blonde hair, knees & elbows flying, I have long been his fan. The gusto with which he throws his body into contact, with or without the ball, epitomises the sport. He is a real rugby man. Not a huge Habana fan. I do respect what he's done & has been a great ambassador for the sport in breaking down the barriers in his homeland. Add to that it could never have been easy for a coloured lad playing in Transvaal. Big up to him, but he is past it. And he looks like a monkey. No, I'm not saying that because he's black. No, I'm not being racist. I'm saying it because he looks like a monkey. But great thinking from him to launch himself when scoring that try. Kept him well above the touchline while dotting the ball down. Great finishing.

Now what will a rugby game be these days without some incompetent officiating? Touchjudge Barnes, no stranger to controversy flagging Jannie Du Plessis for slapping Schwalger when it was only retaliation for the same offence. All game long(and a common Bok ploy these days) the Boks were masters of being told to leave the ball yet infringing for that extra second often resulting in a turnover, at the least slowing the opposition ball down.
Penalty on the Samoan lock Thomson for going in the side when he clearly went through the middle of maul. Result 3pts to the Boks. Huge kick from Steyn, 57m.
Penalty on Lemi for not releasing....come on, he wasn't even close to being held. Owens' decision halting a strong Samoan foray into the Bok half, the defence at 6s & 7s. Quite possibly a try costing decision.
Boks trying to maul over line early in 2nd half, 3 or 4 players clearly no part of maul and clearly trying to only clear path for ball carrier even diving on ground over line to make it difficult to defend. Justice the TMO couldn't give the try on the footage available. Time for refs to smarten up on Bok mauling practise...it turns the art into a sham.
13-5 Boks, Peterson's hand swiping at the ball while clearly off his feet at Samoan ruck 1m from the Springbok line. The defence in disarray, what was obviously cynical play, should have been a yellow card & clear call penalty try. South African turnover and a real match deciding decision from Owens. When questioned by Schwalger responded "Yep they were all back behind the last feet, I was watching it"...??? What was he watching?  Weak weak weak.
Red card on Williams? A punch that was actually a palm in the face. And stating Brussow was hitting Williams' arm because was being held...I saw bout 3 clear smacks to the back of Williams' head. All from a touchjudge 3m from the action but still managing to get it all wrong.
Then the yellow on Smit? Crazy call. Still, put both teams down to 14 for last 10mins and 2 bad calls evened it out. Still...bad, bad officiating. Diabolical.
Yet what would a rugby game be without absolute crap dished out by the officials?

Summarizing the match, despite the pathetically weak refereeing, the best match so far. Is Samoa a team come of age? I doubt it but wouldn't it be great if they could perform like this every international? Wouldn't it be great to have another world heavyweight? And wouldn't the Boks be shaking in their boots? That was one impressive game after a 4 day turnaround.The Boks showed their typical moments of ill-temper, standard fare, they could never handle being tested by lesser teams. When the opposition man up, match fire with fire & dominate (or achieve parity) versus the Springbok pack...the Boks have no plan B. It's only a matter of time before one of these tiny Pacific nations makes history with a South African scalp(remember the heroics of Tonga & Fiji in 2007?). No question which team played the rugby...in both halves. I introduced the bar manager at one of my locals to this sport during this World Cup, & no prizes for guessing which team he came away a supporter of after this clash.

My man of the match...forget the stigma of the winning team. Williams was great nullifying the Bok kicking game. Lemi was a constant danger out on the wing. But no one comes close to the Samoan 2nd5, Eliota Fuimaono Sapolu. An advantage line, defence breaking threat every time he got the ball.

Boks dodge another South Pacific bullet.

And as I said...there's just something about watching the island boys smash the Saffers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF8ctts9LOk

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

rugby officiating

i have said this 100 times but seems like water off a duck's back to many, then post cup we will have to listen to the usual tripe bout how this team won because they did this or that. The reality is refs will have a huge hand in deciding what team makes it how far, and as we surely havent seen the last bit of controversy in this cup, will quite possibly decide the semis, finalists & even the eventual champ. Sepp Blatter would be in heaven controlling our sport if people really did like debating refereeing incompetency.

keep reading the comments for the crap that's been whistled up so far this world cup.

Monday, September 26, 2011

All Blacks v France

wow...nearly a mistake free 1st 40? Personally i was a little disappointed, i was all hyped up expecting a torrid physical battle over the 1st 20mins but it never seemed to eventuate. It was almost as if the ABs had a premeditated plan to not challenge the Frogs on their own ruck ball, soak up the pressure that they knew France would throw at them in the opening stanza, then exert their own stamp on the game. From the moment Nonu slipped between 2 defenders with apparent ease it seemed as if the French didnt want to know about him.

But yet again refereeing had an effect on the game. Cory Jane's clashing with his opposite was all fair, though 1 could argue the subsequent wrapping of his arms deserved a penalty & a yellow card. I think anything more than a penalty would have been harsh as often a player in the air will wrap round his opposite purely for the safety of the both of them. Anyway...nothing malicious, and though a card could have turned the game somewhat it's hard to believe this would have been anything other than an All Black victory. Special mention must go to the Italian touchjudge who flagged Kaino for his "elbow" on yachvili......we're not playing tiddly winks remember.

Great to see Carter running again. With the amount of inside balls added to his & Weepu's probing close to the rucks we may finally start to see some space opening up for our ever dangerous outside backs. Will be great to have Read back next week & on the track before the knock out stages and big a fan as I am of Ali Williams, Sam Whitelock is a gem that looks more polished every game. A huge find for the ABs. Congrats King Richie....can see an embarrassing but deserved monument going up at Whatever It's Called Next Stadium in Christchurch. Commiserations to Mils....barring injury to Dagg, truly looks like he'll be stranded. Still...it's just a number and not many people can say they played 99 tests for the All Blacks.

Kia Kaha

Friday, September 23, 2011

rugby

cant believe bryce lawrence was ranked top tri nations ref....hes weak