#RUGBYWORLDCUP2015: Quarter final show downs

South Africa v Wales

No questions as to what the Boks are going to attempt to bring to the party.  It's going to be a destroy mission upfront and they will try to steamroll a severly winged Welsh outfit.  But they haven't shown the ability to bring their one and only gameplan all year and once again, like clockwork, they spout new found form on the back of an easy victory.  Let's remember this was the USA second stringers, South Africa with misplaced confidence is an almost guarantee of another below par showing.  On the plus side the old man injuries have given them a stronger starting line up, though they could have done with 1 or 2 more falling over.

The Taffs have shown a tendency this cup to keep on hanging on.  Kudos to a lot of hard work from a line of NZ coaches.  If they had had any idea on attack and concentrated on looking for space instead of continuous 1st and 2nd channels versus a 13 man Australia they would be playing Scotland instead.  George North in the 13 jersey is a liability in defence and attack.  He gets his D lines confused and, as with most wings, is no distributor.  The young Bok centre pairing while a handful on attack do have their own defensive weaknesses but North isn't capable of exploiting that.  If Ainscombe plays at the back we could be in for a treat. An unknown at international level and relied on more than a few injuries to make his way into the squad but has shown to be a real handful in Super rugby.  With all the kicks he's likely to receive, it could cause some real problems for South Africa.

Not sure I want to pick this one, so let's say 'go Wales!'.

Ainscombe....somewhat of a silent assassin

All Blacks v France

The Frogs couldn't get up versus a very one dimensional Ireland.  They couldn't defend versus a gameplan that involved minimal offloads meaning no support runners.  Can they hold the All Blacks out? Hopefully the All Blacks won't disappear into their shells again on this one. Or can Les Bleus pull another performance out of the hat just for NZ fans?  

The ABs have received their share of flak and have had problems implementing against lesser teams but they have a tendency to do what is required when necessary.  Expect to see New Zealand's #1 game plan from here on.  A pack going full on into contact (they showed the intent in their last pool game) and trying to outmuscle every other team at the breakdown, then that ball going wide the moment there's some space and mismatches for the backs.  Hansen has surely put the hard word on his front 8. Live or die by the sword. Pave the way for the team and country to the Cup. Then the backs will be able to display their wares and finally end this notion that attacking rugby can't win the World Cup, which will bode well for both the All Blacks and rugby at future cups. One feels McCaw and co have too much to prove this time round.  A chance to bury some ghosts.

Always impossible to pick scores when France is involved but let's say ABs by 16.

Dusautoir....if the French pull this one off it will be in no small part due to him

Ireland v Argentina

For all Ireland's pre cup optimism I have a feeling it's once again a quarter final exit.  Their seemingly dominant performance versus the Frogs was one dimensional stuff.  Schmidt's plan was "Don't lose that ball!" and Ireland played basically ball up your jumper rugby with every carrier tucking it under 2 arms and never looking to offload.  Their final pool victory was more down to a vacant French team. The Paddies climbed as far as #2 in the world rankings but there was always a falsity about it as the Boks and Australia always drop placings due to constant matches versus each other and the All Blacks. Now with the loss of key and experienced personnel surely the bookies will be forced to favour the Pumas.  

The Argy Bargies will meet the Irish pack with pure determination and there are going to be some sore bodies from the Emerald Isle after this one.  The Irish backs have gone ok but with Sexton seemingly out most of that goes out the window. And the Argentine backs are looking pretty lively themselves. 

Argentina to outmuscle the Irish and take this one by 10.

Santiago Cordero....no monster at 5ft9" and 79kg but give him some space and see you later

Australia v Scotland

Aussie definitely look the form team but a hurt, and uninspiring when it counted, Wales gifted them this draw. Pocock out, Australia's best player to date, is obviously a loss but you still expect the Wallabies to canter this.

The Sweats are triers and can turn on the odd gutsy performance but nothing tells me to expect one this weekend. I'll leave it at that.

Aussie by 20.

Jonny Grey, little brother of Richie.My main interest in this game is to watch this kid.

South Africa v Japan-NZ combined, World Cup 2015

Just a few quick word as I can't let that one slip by.

Plaudits to Eddie Jones, a huge amount of work had obviously gone into those lightning hooked scrums and the low tackling with flanks cutting off the supply channels for offloads.  The accuracy of their passing game versus the familiar handling errors from the Boks, the Japs giving South Africa some of their own medicine with a rushing defence (that they kept up for 80 minutes!) creamed off with an energetic 100 mile per hour attitude that only the Japanese have. The 12 man mauls catching the Boks unaware and Garcia could easily have awarded a match winning penalty try for a collapsed maul in the dying moments. The world heavyweight once again showing their inability to change tack during a game.  Easily the greatest upset in international rugby history (except the '95 final) and that's with leaving 10 points on the field in the 1st 11 minutes, this should give some real motivation to the other competing minnows. In the Republic this will cause a vicious backlash to the imposed quotas. Huge, huge match from Japanese captain Michael Leitch.  A dark day in history for the Springboks. Go the Brave Blossoms!



hahahahahahaha

"my" Hansen's World Cup Squad

Coles
Mealamu
Taylor
Elliot's a top lineout thrower but the AB lineout is reigning supreme and he doesn't bring the same energy to his ball-carrying game as he used to. Taylor nabs his spot. Meanwhile Hansen must be over the moon with Coles' development.

O. Franks
B. Franks
Woodcock
Crockett
Laulala 
Faumuiana would probably have been in here, not to sleight Laulala but to keep some others honest. The other frontrowers have all been somewhat lazy of late. Too late for a clean out. Unfortunately the recent head knock puts him out til the naming of the squad.

Time to bring it again, Brodie

Whitelock
Retallick
Romano 
No 4th lock....Thrush is no more than an honest 2nd rower.  Does some hard graft but zero X factor.  Broadhurst will have to wait til next season.  He slipped up bigtime versus South Africa and now has question marks come the big knock out games. Kaino will have to cover. Confidence in our present lineout allows this.

1st XV?

Read
McCaw
Cane 
Kaino
Vito
Messam
Messam will owe his spot to the fact no 4th lock put their hand up.  Recently he has muscled up as demanded by our #6s but his error-rate has skyrocketed as well as needless penalties. Vito has been arguably the top performing NZ loosie this Super season (only competition coming from Hurricanes teammates Savea, Blade Thomson and Brad Shields....both the latter should be in ahead of Messam).  Though a #8 and having had previous problems stepping into the blindside role, Vito brings greater speed and ball handling.  He will have Messam's spot on the bench in big games, maybe even stealing the 6 jersey from Kaino who seems a shadow of his former self.

Smith
Perenara
To accommodate all the below players we're only taking 2 9s to the Cup, taking advanatage of the injury replacement if needed.  In the group games any of the below will suffice as back up if one of the former need a week out.


Carter
Barrett
Sopoaga
Slade
Normally I'd have had Slade as the unlucky one but Hansen's decision to rest him from NPC action raises eyebrows.  Sopoaga has to be the first back should Carter go down and Hansen will give him a group game starting, come knock out time he won't be used on the bench That spot going to Barrett.

Please don't fall over

Nonu
Williams
Smith
Fekitoa
Nonu is in the form of his life and Williams won't get a look in.  On recent form he shouldn't even be in the squad.  Fekitoa doesn't deserve his place either.  All Blacks just don't have error rates that high. He'll get a run in done and dusted games or, if we're under the pump and need something out of the hat.  Hope like hell Nonu and Smith stay fit.  Losing Nonu is going to screw us. I'd have gone with George Moala (the closest to a Nonu replica there is) and Charlie Ngatai (though I do like the look of the Blues' Hamish Northcote).  At the very least I hope Moala is the new Nonu 2016.

No room for Israel?

B.Smith
Savea
Milner-Skudder
Piutau
Unfortunate for Dagg but he gets squeezed out.  I'm sure Hansen and co are pretty desperate to take him but at whose cost? I'd argue that our best performing backline in recent years is with Smith on the wing and Dagg at 15. But Smith is arguably the world's best fullback and Piutau, though not the current favourite son, is the best performing All Black back this year.  Can't leave out The Bus or the dazzling feet of the latest whizzkid on the block. Jane is undercooked, him and the outstanding Osbourne will be monitored as backups during the ITM Cup.

Chief Bolter

Anyone is happy when predictions come true.  Hardly betting, never on golf and winning 17/1 odds on McElroy's first Grand Slam.  Predicting a break out year for Brodie Retallick and he follows up with the International Player of the Year Award.  Not finding the wanted (and would have been winning) bet option on Schumacher finishing 6th in his comeback race (down to an acquaintance's dream).  Picking the Hurricanes as 2015 champions after round 2 and sitting 8 points clear of 2nd with a game in hand after round 15.  Hell, even telling all it'd be Prince George when the bookies had no idea.

Damian Mckenzie to snaffle up a 1st5/fullback possie in the 2015 World Cup All Blacks.  Which means he's going to be tried out prior.  Nothing rattles him.  Takes big hits, makes his tackles (+90%), and keeps getting up for more.  Unusual to take a new kid on board in cup year but he's a game breaker and with the pressure he puts on opposition's defences he opens up so much room for the dangerous All Black outsides.  All the talk about Carter, Cruden, Slade, and Sopoaga as a bolter,...pencil this kid in.

State of the Nation

Things aren't looking too bad.  They say when Auckland rugby is strong, All Black rugby is strong.  All Black rugby is strong.  Auckland has seen better days.  Much better days.  So maybe we should start from the bottom up.

It's the old cliche.  Trotted out time and again. Every Otago team is greater than the sum of its parts.  You could even have uttered this early season but not now.  Yes, there's still the two Smiths and new AB Fekitoa playing their main parts.  But there's a host of others who are thrusting their names forward for national selection.  The 2 wings, Naholo and Osbourne, together with Ben challenge as the best back 3 in the business, with only the Hurricanes to have a word about that.  Osbourne has been in the AB camp before.  Now he is twice the player.  Getting involved he is guaranteed gain line and recycled ball.  That extra time he stays on his feet as he plucks off another metre compliments the All Black style perfectly.
Buckman may never be an AB but if you were selected on heart and effort he'd be the 1st name on the teamsheet.  Asked to fill in the midfield he's done so admirably and you get the feeling he'd play prop if asked. As error free a footballer as you get and then some.  This guy is a thinker and the way he pounces, Barracuda is a nice fit. In the pack they are hardly no names.  Coltman's stock is rising but if there's one player that epitomises this team it's Elliot Dixon.  Perhaps another to fit into the "never an AB" category but this guy shirks nothing and is at the forefront of everything.  Asked to fill in across the backrow he does it with ease, while obviously his best game comes at 6.

Craig Joubert carried the Lions home over the 2nd 40 on the weekend and a recent loss to the Brumbies shouldn't deter.  Master plan by Joseph to fit in his compulsory All Black rest weekends versus a conference front runner.

 

Elliot Dixon

Up to Crusader country and we have the greatest team in pro rugby history that doesn't quite know whether its time is done or not.  Forget the availibility of McCaw and Carter.  This team has struggled since letting Fruean go.  This team seems bereft of ideas when they have no big guy to punch holes at pace out wide.  Enter Nadolo and we have another beast on our hands.  Problem is if he isn't firing the team isn't.  Then getting ball to your winger with some space to work with is another story.  They have missed Dagg.  He has unfairly copped criticism this year but when he has been on the paddock he has looked at or near his best, finding gaps in oppositions' defences out wide and initiating singlehandedly the linking attacks we know the Crusaders are famous for.  Slade is pushing as the best #10 in the comp but apart from that the 3/4s are struggling to get over the advantage line.  Tom Taylor was a short time All Black but I doubt we'll see him there again.  He's very much his ol' man, ie. Mr Dependable.  Bit tough on him being asked to be the Crusaders' handyman but he stifles the attack.  At 15 he is nothing more than your old time fullback, just the last line of defence.  He brings no attack to the team at all.  Up in the engine room and the Red & Blacks have a wealth of riches.  They just need to sort out their pretty boys.  Is it too late?

Jordan Taufua - worth putting a higher number on his back?

Across the Cook Strait into capital territory and we have a revelation.  This team has looked nothing other than finals material since round one.  Wonderkid Barrett pulling the strings and growing with every minute, the new found stepping "Super Rugby is easy" whizzkid at 15 Milner-Skudder, and 2 wide flanks in Savea and Jane and you've got some serious fire power.  Nonu in the form of his life and the ageless Conrad Smith, all fed by TJ Perenara finally pushing for the AB 9 jersey?  In the pack the only worry will be Thrush,....can he keep his jersey?  My money would say no.  Broadhurst is outperforming him in every aspect.  A backrow of Vito, Shields and Ardie Savea means no place for Blade Thomson.  This guy is dynamic and must be pushing for a black jersey of his own, forget the yellow one. Up front it's all good with most the fatties on the selectors' radar.  The biggest threat to a maiden Super title is losing a home knock out match to a fellow Kiwi team.

The name says it all. Blade.

Heading on up State Highway 1 to Chiefs territory.  Still a champion team but playing like a champion every 2nd game.  Lowe pushing hard for a black jersey, pops up everywhere, a powerhouse wing with a boot to match and capable of holding his own at fullback.  Nanai-Williams has been chasing the AB dream all his life and despite this being his best season his at times frail defence is all that's holding him back.  Sonny Bill in midfield has been unusually quiet and the work he does creating can go unnoticed.  Cruden maybe isn't the big loss people think if the Chiefs would fill it with the younger MacKenzie brother. Belying his slight frame this boy can light up a game.  Far too quick for any of the tight 5 this kid can dart through keyholes.  Messam has finally muscled up over the last season or 2, Retallick is Retallick, much more than a workhorse.  Big Ben still hanging in for that black jersey, he seems capable of 80 to me and throws himself around.  Not sure what the final criteria is the selectors are looking for.

 Damian MacKenzie....blink and you'll miss him

Over the Bombays and a coaching frustration.  The simplest game plan Kirwan could put in place is order zero offloads.  The Blues would still win half their games this way.  The amount of spilled ball is terrifying and surprised Sir John still has a head of hair.  This is like watching bad games from the Hurricanes of old over and over again.  Some classy backs right through from 11 to 15.  Bowden was a godsend so we'll be wanting him back quick sharp. Moala, off field problems seemingly behind him, should be being watched by Hansen and co.  If they seriously want to continue down the Nonu-C.Smith road then Fekitoa doesn't fit the concept.  Wing come inside-centre Moala is your man.  A beast, ball in hand, the only player that comes close to Nonu's bustling pressure relieving crash game. Piutau will be sorely missed.  Up front Luatua is playing for his life and is hoping to step up in Kaino's absence.  Akira Ioane is the one to watch.  19 years old and already sitting 120kg opponents on their proverbials with powerful runs, icing it nicely with some 3/4 like swerving runs out wide.  The question here is will the selectors be willing to blood a kid in the lead up to the Cup?  Tuipulotu is a one man wrecking machine but his offloads have to be restrained.  If he can get that right he is going to be an important cog at the Cup with the modern game. New look Tu'ugafasi looks good to me.  As big as today's props come at 120kg and 195cm, just ticked over 23 will the selectors also be ready to take a gamble here?

Akira Ioane

  

All up New Zealand rugby is looking pretty good despite the exodus.  A lot of untried players at international level pushing for a part.  We haven't seen how they stack up playing at the elite, but neither has anyone else.Things are looking pretty damned good.