Post Match: Wales v Aussie

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World Cup Final Preview: All Blacks vs France

All the talk surrounding this game is about France the ABs' bogey team. Opinion is divided over whether New Zealand will win with ease or if France will turn the tables yet again. Yet it is this very history that will make sure of an All Black victory on Sunday. There is no chance of underestimating the French. The All Blacks will turn up as if they are playing the world #1. In '99 the French played a phenomenal game scoring 4 tries to put the game out of reach of a shell-shocked ABs. Phenomenal it was, but 3 of the 4 tries came from kicks, some from the most extraordinary bounces. The All Blacks are prepared for this. In 2003 a not ready, thrown in the deep end referee refused to officiate offsides, meaning despite dominating the game, not being given one penalty in the 2nd 40, one penalty which would have changed the result. Dominating the 2nd half to such an extent the French captain, Dusautoir, made more tackles than the entire New Zealand pack. An offside game that prevented New Zealand from playing their wanted expansive game. New Zealand are prepared for this. The AB pack, led by Jerome Kaino, have taken it on themselves to step up 3 weeks in a row over the knock out stages. They have to set the Black juggernaut in motion. Arguably 2011 has seen the most destructive pick & go ever in rugby. New Zealand have been true professors this cup at knowing when to send the ball wide. And not before the hard yards are done. Of course, it helps having such talent out wide.

Discussion about whether this is the worst team ever to make a Rugby World Cup final....quite possibly. It's a toss up between them & both the 2007 finalists. There's discussion about whether this All Black team is a better model than 2007. Personally I believe the 2006 All Black team was the greatest rugby team there has ever been. What the 2011 All Blacks are is the greatest prepared team to win a Rugby World Cup (perhaps coupled with the '95 team). The 2011 model has a mix of youth & experience. With guys like Israel Dagg & Sam Whitelock still babies on the international stage you'd hope their best is yet to come. The '95 team was prepared physically to run every single team off their feet. Ask any player....they went through hell to prepare for that cup. The 2011 team is prepared over the board...physically & mentally. The plan & mindsets were planted long ago.

Despite some of the talk coming from the French camp about being up for this game it's impossible to see. We all know how unpredictable they can be but it will require a colossal dropping of the guard from NZ. There have been comments about intelligent French play with a record low 9 penalties/game against them...I attribute that to not even competing. And if it was intelligence remember they still gave Wales plenty of 3point opportunities to win their semi. I argue that France's best game to date was their group game vs New Zealand. In that game they differed somewhat by not actually playing the first 20mintues yet showing some steel later on (though the final score was padded somewhat by a dodgy Yashvili try).

Basically, France have to show a lot more than the 20 odd minutes they have put on vs other opponents to date. And even then I can't see it.  I would say this All Blacks are even prepared for the proverbial kitchen sink. I heard comments regarding NZ only beating Aussie by 14.....but sit down and look at the game. They shut Australia out. No tries and one penalty goal in 80minutes of rugby vs the world #2? And France are going to bring a lot less to the table than Australia. They seem a team totally bereft of ideas and resort to a kicking game...and not even a good one. On top of that New Zealand have frustrated teams all season into kicking the ball away such is the solidity of their defensive line. I'd suggest they need Trinh-Duc to have a hope of getting kicks in behind the NZ back 3 and pressuring the All Black lineout. Playing Parra yet again at 10 only really leaves them to play a chipping game which New Zealand have had covered all season. But with the back 3 on song defensively (Corey Jane is a one man bomb disposal unit, added to the danger of their countering) maybe the chip game is France's only real hope....hope to find turf and hope for that crazy bounce yet again. A chance to get in behind a solid defensive line & show that French flair.

The French pack will man up....for 20 minutes...maybe even half an hour. Then they will do well to keep it respectable.The All Blacks will be brutal, & a lot will depend on how long the French stay interested. Tournament long they have shown no unity or cohesion, no common objective apart from trying to play the game. There has been no structure, followed by......kicking.

So, put that up against a great team. A great plan to take the referee out of the equation and and even greater team to execute that plan. And, a great team that can afford to moderate their game in order to follow through. The All Blacks have showed their cards in bits & parts all season. But what you saw last week is the real deal. Expect more of the same on Sunday.

PREVIEW: Wales vs Australia

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BULLiED

Chokers? Chokers my arse. Told you so. Told you these were men on a mission. The Wallabies play the match of their tournament but didn't get a look in. They were bullied up front. It was relentless when the All Blacks had the ball in hand. They showed why their ruck is considered the best in the game. Over the advantage line over & over again. Mealamu was a pocket battleship breaking through up the middle. The 2nd & backrows were ever present to take the ball up, relieving the pressure on Cruden. In defense Kaino was massive, highlighted by his carry on Ioane near the AB line.Owen Franks must be #1 as the world's best defensive prop, making tackle after tackle in the defensive line. From 1 to 8...the All Black pack stood up. Pocock did what he could, even producing a couple of steals, but the Australian pack was bullied at the NZ breakdown. They defended their own ruck ball like men possessed. They matched up at lineout time & won the scrum battle. Australia was lucky the All Blacks error rate was so low that they only had 6 scrum put ins,...losing 2 of those.

The Australians contained Nonu well, but his ability to make the gainline was still there, as well as his tendency to take 2 or 3 defenders. A sick Weepu fronted up well despite a poor day at the office in the goalkicking department, leaving 14pts on the field. Cruden was forever under pressure by an advancing Wallabies but with the pack being ever present to take the hit ups, and Corey Jane coming in off his wing the Australian objective to rattle the young 1st 5 wasn't realised.. Cruden himself even ghosting through the defense on a couple of occasions (though fluffing a try by cutting back in with 3 supporters outside). NZ's kicking game was as close to flawless as you can get, down the line or angled corner kicks pushing the Australians back on defence, often the restart being NZ ball. The Wallaby tactic seemed to be the high ball to Corey Jane who had undoubtedly the best day you will have ever seen under the high ball taking these with apparent ease, kick after kick. Copy book stuff. Dagg at the back was a constant threat. It now seems a given that when he runs that ball back he will light up the stadium. Gaps appear where there were no gaps. Forget superstar in the making, this kid is a superstar already. If he wasn't running he was returning favour with some booming touch finders.

In my match preview I said the chokers' tag is what will inspire these guys. You saw from the word go this team has a mental resolve. They controlled the game. Defending they trusted their defensive plan & chose to fan out cutting down space for the young exciting Wallabies, while biding their time to grab a ruck turnover. They minimised the penalties against them. Aussie looked dangerous only from quick turnover ball but such was the All Blacks' intent at their own ruck they minimised these opportunities & the Wallabies were often forced into a kicking game that came back to haunt them. Dagg & Jane were a sideshow to the main event but Australia were a glutton for punishment, feeding them time & time again.

This was truly a 15 man performance (black mark on Sonny Bill making a cameo long enough to get carded and leaving the ABs to battle out the dying minutes with 14 causing a few jitters amongst the fans & coaches alike). Forget world cup history and judge this team for what they have brought to the table to date. Stamp that cup now.

PREVIEW: All Blacks vs Wallabies

Ma'a Nonu: expect the game of his life

Could only be a bigger match if this was the world cup final. As it is, world #1 vs world #2 in the semi final. Been here before. Twice they have met in rugby world cups, twice the Australians have pushed the All Blacks out in the semis to the prospect of waiting another 4 long years. The Wallabies have shown that, despite a sometimes dismal form that belies the number 2 or 3 ranked team in the world, they can turn up when it matters most; vs the Men in Black. That is where all the doubt lies heading into this colossal match. Yet again NZ find themselves in a world cup as the unquestioned favourites. Yet again the pressure is on. Yet again as the timer counts down the world is questioning the All Blacks' mental resolve.

The facts. Australia have won 2 of the last 3. The deeper facts. Both those victories were a little bit hollow. The Tri Nations opponents already whitewashed, the Bledisloe in the bag for another year, then a stopover in Asia at the beginning of their Northern Hemisphere tour, followed by the last home game of the Tri Nations, a rested team vs a rotating, divided squad. Some returning from the Republic, some flying over from NZ after some time off with their family. And obviously with bigger things on their mind. The Wallabies taking home the Tri Nations cup has aided New Zealand, while giving Australia hope. False hope?

Both teams at their best will mean there's only 1 result. Australia haven't played well enough yet at this cup to suggest a victory on Sunday. It's clear they will have to turn out something much better than what we have seen to date to have a show. Meanwhile the Black Machine is rocking along nicely. A below par performance in the opener vs Tonga but nothing but steadiness since. And, something novel for All Black teams of this era, showing a real ability to keep structure.

The black pack know this is their day. Instead of the pressure felt through previous campaigns and the constant remarks about the All Blacks' mental state when the heat comes on,...these boys are relishing the opportunity. They aren't going into this match to simply dominate upfront...they have one simple resolve....to smash the Wallaby pack. The New Zealand scrum is arguably the best in the world. Woodcock is generally widely regarded as the world's best loosehead. After injury problems he has come on nicely and is now making his presence felt. As young as Owen Franks is, the uncovering of him (& his brother) is seen as a real coup for New Zealand rugby. Mealamu the most dynamic rake around? Put big bad Brad up behind our tighthead and the Wallaby scrum has less hope than the proverbial snowball. Whitelock is fast developing into the world's most exciting lock (taking over from pinerider, Ali Williams). Jerome Kaino is a menace, just ask any international team that has faced him. Commands the utmost respect, carry the ball near him at your own peril. Read is short of a gallop but is nothing but class, considered in NZ as the world's premier eightman. McCaw at 7...he speaks for himself. The only place Australia can match up is openside flank, Pocock vs McCaw. But with a dominated pack Pocock is going to be fighting a losing battle.

Word is, and didn't we know it, the Wallabies will target Cruden. I imagine that won't phase NZ or Cruden one bit. The injury to Slade is a blessing in disguise. This kid has had a phenomenal domestic championship, basically dominating rugby headlines more than any other player, or having said that, more than any team. He was literally on fire. And has personally been through a lot tougher times than anything Australia could throw at him. Besides, he is going to get an armchair ride behind a pack that is stepping up, in part, for him. Add to the mix 4 other Hurricanes in the backline and he will be right at home. Weepu is on top of his game, thriving on the extra responsibility now Carter has gone. He even has the top goalkicking performance at the cup. Nonu, maybe courtesy of Sonny B, is in the form of his life. At centre the current era ABs' answer to 80s Mr Dependable Warwick Taylor in Conrad Smith, flanked by the wing with the golden touch (& back in form) Corey Jane & the always stepping up Richard Kahui. The dazzling counter attacking of Israel Dagg is the icing on the cake, and you have got 1 backline with a mix of power, pace & skills to match it with anything the Aussie wonderkids can throw at them. If Beale can't get through this it takes away their #1 attacking weapon. Cooper will be nullified because he can't play behind a backtracking pack.

But it all comes back to the same thing. The choke. Well...it isn't going to happen. It isn't going to happen for a number of reasons. The past couple of seasons the All Blacks have shown the ability to come back from seemingly unbeatable deficits with time running out on the clock. There is a real belief in themselves & the players around them. The mental resolve has grown and is still growing as you read this. They will not let anything or anyone get in their way this time round. That includes the referee. The game plan will show this. The all out attack will be leashed. The expansive game won't be. On defense it will be 2 hit ups and clear. On opposition scrums they will gauge the referee's feeling. They have the mettle on the Wallaby scrum but if the whistles aren't going their way against the head they will bide their time, slowly sapping the opposition's strength up front. They will bide their time at Australian rucks while in defence, trusting in their defensive systems & waiting for the moment to pounce. Gone are the gift 3 points to the opposition because a referee interpreted it differently. The irony is the choke tag takes away some of our favouritism. Every cloud has its silver lining.

The All Blacks will win this upfront and between halfback & 2nd 5. Weepu behind a rampaging pack (yes, they will rampage), a sniping Cruden (by the way, with one of the most dangerous offloads in the game) and a bustling Nonu...the outsides may do the finishing but around the traffic zones it will be relentless for the
Australian defence. While the Wallabies had a mammoth defensive effort last week facing 75% possession...it was mainly fielding kicks and forlorn attempts at counter attack. NZ will do a lot more with the ball than a stagnant Boks. The 1st 20mins of this game will be among the most bruising you have ever seen.

Australia will do well to stop it becoming 1 oneway street. ABs will attempt to win this inside the 1st half hour.