PREVIEW: All Blacks vs Wallabies

Ma'a Nonu: expect the game of his life

Could only be a bigger match if this was the world cup final. As it is, world #1 vs world #2 in the semi final. Been here before. Twice they have met in rugby world cups, twice the Australians have pushed the All Blacks out in the semis to the prospect of waiting another 4 long years. The Wallabies have shown that, despite a sometimes dismal form that belies the number 2 or 3 ranked team in the world, they can turn up when it matters most; vs the Men in Black. That is where all the doubt lies heading into this colossal match. Yet again NZ find themselves in a world cup as the unquestioned favourites. Yet again the pressure is on. Yet again as the timer counts down the world is questioning the All Blacks' mental resolve.

The facts. Australia have won 2 of the last 3. The deeper facts. Both those victories were a little bit hollow. The Tri Nations opponents already whitewashed, the Bledisloe in the bag for another year, then a stopover in Asia at the beginning of their Northern Hemisphere tour, followed by the last home game of the Tri Nations, a rested team vs a rotating, divided squad. Some returning from the Republic, some flying over from NZ after some time off with their family. And obviously with bigger things on their mind. The Wallabies taking home the Tri Nations cup has aided New Zealand, while giving Australia hope. False hope?

Both teams at their best will mean there's only 1 result. Australia haven't played well enough yet at this cup to suggest a victory on Sunday. It's clear they will have to turn out something much better than what we have seen to date to have a show. Meanwhile the Black Machine is rocking along nicely. A below par performance in the opener vs Tonga but nothing but steadiness since. And, something novel for All Black teams of this era, showing a real ability to keep structure.

The black pack know this is their day. Instead of the pressure felt through previous campaigns and the constant remarks about the All Blacks' mental state when the heat comes on,...these boys are relishing the opportunity. They aren't going into this match to simply dominate upfront...they have one simple resolve....to smash the Wallaby pack. The New Zealand scrum is arguably the best in the world. Woodcock is generally widely regarded as the world's best loosehead. After injury problems he has come on nicely and is now making his presence felt. As young as Owen Franks is, the uncovering of him (& his brother) is seen as a real coup for New Zealand rugby. Mealamu the most dynamic rake around? Put big bad Brad up behind our tighthead and the Wallaby scrum has less hope than the proverbial snowball. Whitelock is fast developing into the world's most exciting lock (taking over from pinerider, Ali Williams). Jerome Kaino is a menace, just ask any international team that has faced him. Commands the utmost respect, carry the ball near him at your own peril. Read is short of a gallop but is nothing but class, considered in NZ as the world's premier eightman. McCaw at 7...he speaks for himself. The only place Australia can match up is openside flank, Pocock vs McCaw. But with a dominated pack Pocock is going to be fighting a losing battle.

Word is, and didn't we know it, the Wallabies will target Cruden. I imagine that won't phase NZ or Cruden one bit. The injury to Slade is a blessing in disguise. This kid has had a phenomenal domestic championship, basically dominating rugby headlines more than any other player, or having said that, more than any team. He was literally on fire. And has personally been through a lot tougher times than anything Australia could throw at him. Besides, he is going to get an armchair ride behind a pack that is stepping up, in part, for him. Add to the mix 4 other Hurricanes in the backline and he will be right at home. Weepu is on top of his game, thriving on the extra responsibility now Carter has gone. He even has the top goalkicking performance at the cup. Nonu, maybe courtesy of Sonny B, is in the form of his life. At centre the current era ABs' answer to 80s Mr Dependable Warwick Taylor in Conrad Smith, flanked by the wing with the golden touch (& back in form) Corey Jane & the always stepping up Richard Kahui. The dazzling counter attacking of Israel Dagg is the icing on the cake, and you have got 1 backline with a mix of power, pace & skills to match it with anything the Aussie wonderkids can throw at them. If Beale can't get through this it takes away their #1 attacking weapon. Cooper will be nullified because he can't play behind a backtracking pack.

But it all comes back to the same thing. The choke. Well...it isn't going to happen. It isn't going to happen for a number of reasons. The past couple of seasons the All Blacks have shown the ability to come back from seemingly unbeatable deficits with time running out on the clock. There is a real belief in themselves & the players around them. The mental resolve has grown and is still growing as you read this. They will not let anything or anyone get in their way this time round. That includes the referee. The game plan will show this. The all out attack will be leashed. The expansive game won't be. On defense it will be 2 hit ups and clear. On opposition scrums they will gauge the referee's feeling. They have the mettle on the Wallaby scrum but if the whistles aren't going their way against the head they will bide their time, slowly sapping the opposition's strength up front. They will bide their time at Australian rucks while in defence, trusting in their defensive systems & waiting for the moment to pounce. Gone are the gift 3 points to the opposition because a referee interpreted it differently. The irony is the choke tag takes away some of our favouritism. Every cloud has its silver lining.

The All Blacks will win this upfront and between halfback & 2nd 5. Weepu behind a rampaging pack (yes, they will rampage), a sniping Cruden (by the way, with one of the most dangerous offloads in the game) and a bustling Nonu...the outsides may do the finishing but around the traffic zones it will be relentless for the
Australian defence. While the Wallabies had a mammoth defensive effort last week facing 75% possession...it was mainly fielding kicks and forlorn attempts at counter attack. NZ will do a lot more with the ball than a stagnant Boks. The 1st 20mins of this game will be among the most bruising you have ever seen.

Australia will do well to stop it becoming 1 oneway street. ABs will attempt to win this inside the 1st half hour.