rugby: Australia-South Africa

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Australia-South Africa



The big game from the Southern side of the quarters. A back to full strength and arguably as strongest as they have been in the Deans rebuilding era Wallabies vs a troubled, aging, yet still dangerous Springboks. What's it to be? An Australian pack matching it up front and giving their exciting young backs licence to thrill? Or a dominant rumbling Bok pack getting into pressuring positions onfield and coming away with 3 points?

The Aussie tight 5 and frontrow in particular is going to have to stand up. Australia is quite capable of having their scrum destroyed and still coming away with a victory but a semblance of parity here & you'd have to think it will be advance Australia fair. A lot of talk and even some Saffer tears regarding the loss of Bakkies Botha but in reality they are missing nothing. Danie Rossouw is just as physical & brings a lot more to the 2nd row than just intimidation. And he's having a great tournament. He'd be my 1st pick ahead of all the South African locks. Matfield isn't the lineout king he once was and Australia have shown themselves to be the match of anyone in this discipline. Expect the Wallaby lineout to attempt to turn the tables here.

An unshackled Rocky Elsom is quite capable of matching Burger with the ball in hand, a reborn Samo has had a much better season than Spies, and much has been said of Pocock v Brüssow. Pocock wins that hands down if Brüssow is forced to play within the rules. He's quite capable of turning over an impressive amount of ball but is often allowed to scavenge while on both knees or even enter sides of rucks astoundingly while returning from offside positions. The bad luck here for the Wallabies is the man with the whistle is perhaps the weakest ruck controller amongst all international referees, NZ's Bryce Lawrence.

Expect Genia to have an impact and while we all know Du Preez's ability he will be wanting a dominant performance upfront.The Boks will no doubt be trying to put some heat on Cooper, expect Burger to be thrust into the openside role on occasion to bear down on the #10 as they try to rattle this potential match winner/loser. The African midfield isn't the force it once was but Fourie is always onsong & De Villiers will be relishing finally getting his world cup opportunity. The Australian centres match up here, McCabe is still new but defensively sound. Outside, Habana isn't the threat of bygone seasons & with the pacey outside Australian backs he will be even more nullified. One try in well over a year, and even then vs a minnow, doesn't argue against that. Peterson does the job but wouldn't make either of the other trinations teams. By contrast O'Connor is a constant threat and NZ born Ioane may be a bit rusty after time out for a broken thumb but we can expect some bustling runs. At the back Lambie has been class but counterattacking from the back not really being a Springbok ploy he will be reduced to injecting himself into the line & defending Australian attacks out wide. Surely we will see Beale mixing it up with his wings this will be where Australia win it.

A lot will come down to referee interpretation at scrum time but the Australian pack will do a reasonable job and even hope for a few penalties their way. Steenkamp is known to drop his bind at times & this may all the Wallaby pack need for a confidence boost. If Lawrence can show some sort of understanding and vision at the ruck the Green & Gold will take this one by 15. If the Aussie scrum can't hold up & Brüssow gets a free licence it's going to be a very long night for the Wallabies.

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