Both teams will be trying to get 1 over the other at scrum time...but neither pack is up to scratch
A toothless England with no penetration and a pack that is a shadow of its former self vs an out of sorts French unit that is struggling to give even their most passionate supporter hope for one of those glorious games?
There is hope that the said 950 year Anglo-French rivalry will finally awaken two slumbering giants. That the bitter pill from losing this international derby is too hard to swallow is what will finally stir these 2 normal powerhouses from the north into action. I do think we'll see a lot more aggression from these 2 teams than we have to date. But will it continue & eventuate into a spectacle for all the right reasons? Personally....I can't see it....
First up...who is the home team? Obviously England will want their brand new black, Maori design emblazoned shirts. This will force the French into their white strip. Hardly the same psychological move as forcing the ABs into their alternate but still, 1st points to the Poms.
So, an English pack without Sheridan. For all the hype Matt Stevens hasn't produced & the French will target him. Make no mistake, both teams will see the scrum as a possible area of dominance and would have been working hard on this. An experienced Steve Thompson to start ahead of a more aggressive Hartley, the right ploy. A niggling French effort could prove costly if Hartley can't contain himself but guaranteed to make an entrance as the game opens up. Same could be said for Lawes starting on the bench behind Deacon as the English take 4 locks into the game in a 5/2 split on the bench. Flood at 2nd5 would normally be a risky move but with a solid defender at 10 in Wilkinson and the French marking up with no one of particular size except for Rougerie at centre we'll just have to wait and see. Obviously Johnson & co are hoping the ploy of a 2nd5 rather then an inside centre will finally get their backs looking dangerous. For all the talk young Tuilagi has been largely ineffectual and Ben Foden's spark disappeared long ago. In an all too common theme from the 6 nations the English backs showed yet again their startling ability to run across field. Cueto is solid but in many teams would be nothing more than a journeyman while Ashton has failed to reach the heights of last season.
Now this is the tough part. France. Les Bleus. The Blues. How appropriate. Must have been a very hard cup to date for the French fans to watch. Everyone knows they can pull the rabbit out of the hat. Problem is that hat seems just too empty. Still, it will take a brave man to bet against them. Forget the apparent disharmony in the squad. Much as some won't like to hear it the French can be very much like their neighbouring Italians. A lot of emotion & sentiment in the moment that often comes pouring out but it's such a part of their culture that it's easily forgotten. So despite the mysterical ramblings from a seemingly madman as a coach, come game day that will all be forgotten.
Upfront the French will be looking for a huge game from Servat. If Stevens proves to be the weak link then poor Dan Coles could be in for a demanding day if Servat directs his attention onto the English tighthead. THIS will be the decisive part of the game with both frontrows looking for a quick camaraderie with referee Steve Walsh to gain the early ascendancy. With the current French form it's just too difficult to say whether or which of the 2nd or backrows will dominate. We know what the English can do but if the French can rediscover that hardnosed attitude tinged with some niggly foul play it may just be enough to help them find that extra gear. Yachvili is going to have to be watched...not for reason of any current form but in this cup alone has shown a tendency to try things "un-rugby". Simulated dives & unsporting quick taps come to mind. Parra at 1st5 hasn't worked. Mind you neither has the whole French lineup. Outside the halves there's been nothing of note but when you are as big as Rougerie you will always be a threat.
England the last few years have seemed set on trying to expand their game but make no mistake, this is finals footy. With Wilkinson & Flood in the mix there will definitely be no shyness towards the odd dropgoal but you still need to score tries to go all the way and they will be looking to get their dangerous outsides into space. One feels however that a standard sliding defence supported by good cover will negate English attempts to run the ball. I think we all know...if the French turn it on, then this game is theirs for the taking. I think everyone has a different idea of just how big this IF is. The niggle is a sure thing and with an at times powerhungry Steve Walsh there's going to be cards. Keeping those to a minimum & getting him on side at scrum time will be the essential ingredients to getting through this. Make no bones about it...there's going to be controversy.
This could be tight as they come. Being a Kiwi and having been burnt by the French before I could be forgiven for hedging my bets but I have seen nothing this cup, spare the opening 10mins vs the ABs, to suggest a French victory. Maybe the apparent support of the world will be that extra spur they need? If the scrum battle is split then I'm picking an English victory by 15 and 1st tryscorer an ever supporting Mark Cueto. If the French can get their frontrow rocking & get under their opponents' skin, that's all the French backs need to get their act on....then it will be Tous Bleu. Look for any French back to finish off a counter.
But then again....Steve Walsh is referee. The only given is some dodgy calls, and expect the irishman Clancy to have his say.
So...a spectacle for all the right reasons? Personally....I can't see it....(still....gonna be fun watching the Poms and Frogs niggle the shit out of each other)
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