Ireland vs Wales

This is the game that packs most interest for me. The 2 in form teams of the northern hemisphere. Paddy vs Taffy. Number 5 vs number 6. 2 teams that through the last 40yrs have had nothing between them (only the initial Welsh glory days overshadow the Irish). I said it the moment the boys from the Emerald Isle beat the Wallabies that this is the best chance they (along with Wales) will get in 50yrs of world cup rugby to take home the Webb Ellis. All the Southern powers cast to one side of the draw, a misfiring France & still toothless England on theirs. Just as the All Blacks will play their final next week vs the winner of Australia-South Africa, Wales & Ireland play their semi now. If the Boks or Wallabies can get up to beat the ABs it leaves the final wide open.

I have long been a fan of the Scarlet Dragons. The way they have started to play again, while obviously enjoying themselves, is how rugby should be played. When I dont support the ABs I support the Taffs. For all of that the Irish arent too far behind. The bookies cant separate them & neither can I.

The Welsh playing under a new hero, a young everywhere man and a player come of age when his nation needed him. A just turned 23 Sam Warburton. Not a huge man by any standards but a huge heart. Inspiration when Wales needed inspiration. If the Welsh can get their go forward happening, and after seeing their display vs the Spring Boks one would have to think it's a given, expect to see one busy & tackle busting Toby Faletau added to the mix. One of the players of the tournament to date. There will be a lot of fire between these 2 in form packs but the Welsh will still to play to this frenetic pace which we have seen employed with success this cup. Gatland chooses Priestland in a show of confidence for the young playmaker, leaving a very experienced & now fit Stephen Jones out of the matchday 22 & only a bench spot for the classy James Hook. And why wouldn't you pick him? Wales are looking good as they were in their heady "sometimes" days under the Great Redeemer Henry. Outside Priestland you have a rampaging Jamie Roberts and not too far behind Davies. Welsh record try scorer Williams comes back into the mix for what could be his swansong and can we expect the game of his tournament? He has been a little quiet & would be nice to see him pull 1 Welsh sidestep after another on his way to beating 4 or 5 tacklers on the inside. A match winning giant of a boy in George North playing out of position on the right to accommodate Williams but we will still expect big things. Your true modern day rugby winger, +100kg and quick...and he has it all at 19. Interesting call to have Halfpenny at 15 ahead of James Hook but he is in great form and his workrate coupled with a defense that belies his stature ensures his place. His booming penalties won't hurt either.

Ireland may be hoping for a damp day to get their forward pack rumbling & to nullify the extreme pace that Wales will surely look to impose on the match. Obviously the Irish will try to get scrum dominance but I can't see Wales not having done their homework there. An evergreen lighter Paul O'Connell has had a great year & will be key for 2 reasons: As Ireland look to extend their statistics as the most dominant lineout at the cup(snaffling round 30% of oppn throws) and his ability to get his new model frame round the park to combat the Welsh expansive game. No one doubts the power of the back 3 but without a true fetcher I think the loose trios will just about cancel each other out unless 1 pack gains the upper hand. The big call here is Kidney opting for O'Gara at 1st5 leaving one to suspect the Irish have now moved truly into knockout rugby and will look to defend while adding to their tally in 3s. Regardless of the kicker if it continues to blow like recent days at the Wellington stadium many kicks are going to come down to luck in that swirling wind. O'Gara not known for his expansive game but his recent sub appearances have shown an ability to open up his outsides. Still, hard to see the Irish plan being to mix it with the Welsh backs though expect some pinpoint cross the field kicks where Tommy Bowe has an obvious size & height advantage over Shane Williams. Despite the experience of the Irish midfield they have shown a tendency this season to fall off (or not even get there) tackles. With the form of the brutal Welsh midfield this could be where Wales break the game open.

So what's it to be? Ireland gunning for a dominant performance upfront while picking off 3pt plays or a counter attacking frenetic Welsh game? Personally I cant see the Irish pack gaining much of an ascendancy and I do think the Welsh midfield will create havoc combined with their dangerous outsides. Joubert would be my favourite referee when it comes to capability but they have shown they are all prone to match deciding controversial decisions. With Barnes & Poite on the sidelines we can expect some flags.
I'll say the Dragons by 10, North to either finish off a counter attack or a midfield break to be first try scorer. Or a pacey fullback with vision and the opportunity to inject himself where he wants. Halfpenny.
Enjoy. I will.